Edge Report

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Journal history is the primary edge signal on this page.

Startup walk-forward and Symbol Diagnostics remain available below as supporting context for data coverage and broker-source troubleshooting.

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Strategies
1
Closed Trades
2129
Profitable Strategies
1
Last Recorded Trade
2026-05-29 22:45:00

Quant Evidence by Symbol

Condition the realized sample by regime, window, and timeframe before treating it as real edge

XAUUSD.PRO

Sample established · max drawdown $17456.78 · max losing streak 9

XAUUSD.PRO: positive realized edge exists

The realized sample is positive; the main question is where the edge is strongest and whether it survives narrower conditioning.

Trades
1595
Win Rate
77.6%
95% band 75.5%–79.6%
Expectancy
$637.31
Profit Factor
4.389
P&L Distribution
p10 $-665.59 · p50 $681.00 · p90 $2001.50
Best Timeframe
20m
Actionable Read
  • Best regime so far: balanced_range (854 trades, exp $880.00)
  • Best window so far: XAUUSD.PRO · 09:00 UTC · history_import (62 trades)
  • Best timeframe evidence: 20m (113 trades, exp $1112.86)
  • 95% win-rate band: 75.5%–79.6%

Regime Edge

balanced range exp $880.00
854 trades 92.3% win $751516.04
trend down exp $734.73
136 trades 85.3% win $99923.32
trend up exp $423.98
359 trades 50.7% win $152207.13
unknown exp $37.63
246 trades 61.3% win $9031.66

Best Windows

XAUUSD.PRO · 09:00 UTC · history_import exp $1115.68
62 trades 96.8% win history_import
XAUUSD.PRO · 03:00 UTC · history_import exp $1099.45
88 trades 78.4% win history_import
XAUUSD.PRO · 11:00 UTC · history_import exp $1028.78
22 trades 86.4% win history_import

Timeframe Evidence

20m exp $1112.86
113 trades 71.7% win PF 3.6
15m exp $1112.32
163 trades 75.5% win PF 4.813
5m exp $669.56
355 trades 86.5% win PF 7.966
10m exp $659.87
206 trades 77.7% win PF 3.137

OILUSD.PRO

Sample established · max drawdown $8231.83 · max losing streak 11

OILUSD.PRO: positive realized edge exists

The realized sample is positive; the main question is where the edge is strongest and whether it survives narrower conditioning.

Trades
1452
Win Rate
70.8%
95% band 68.4%–73.0%
Expectancy
$310.62
Profit Factor
3.21
P&L Distribution
p10 $-545.39 · p50 $347.50 · p90 $1105.00
Best Timeframe
30m
Actionable Read
  • Best regime so far: balanced_range (670 trades, exp $437.99)
  • Best window so far: OILUSD.PRO · 21:00 UTC · history_import (34 trades)
  • Best timeframe evidence: 30m (82 trades, exp $619.29)
  • 95% win-rate band: 68.4%–73.0%

Regime Edge

balanced range exp $437.99
670 trades 90.6% win $293451.78
trend down exp $327.13
164 trades 77.4% win $53650.07
trend up exp $189.36
570 trades 48.6% win $107934.99
unknown exp $-100.70
48 trades 32.6% win $-4632.20

Best Windows

OILUSD.PRO · 21:00 UTC · history_import exp $808.77
34 trades 61.8% win history_import
OILUSD.PRO · 18:00 UTC · history_import exp $711.26
47 trades 80.9% win history_import
OILUSD.PRO · 17:00 UTC · history_import exp $664.07
31 trades 80.6% win history_import

Timeframe Evidence

30m exp $619.29
82 trades 69.5% win PF 3.95
15m exp $500.36
219 trades 74.9% win PF 3.803
20m exp $460.04
140 trades 67.9% win PF 3.369
10m exp $262.63
253 trades 64.4% win PF 2.408

BTCUSD

Sample established · max drawdown $6313.53 · max losing streak 14

BTCUSD: positive realized edge exists

The realized sample is positive; the main question is where the edge is strongest and whether it survives narrower conditioning.

Trades
2805
Win Rate
75.5%
95% band 73.9%–77.1%
Expectancy
$127.97
Profit Factor
3.242
P&L Distribution
p10 $-202.94 · p50 $142.00 · p90 $419.45
Best Timeframe
30m
Actionable Read
  • Best regime so far: trend_down (241 trades, exp $176.75)
  • Best window so far: BTCUSD · 21:00 UTC (2 trades)
  • Best timeframe evidence: 30m (296 trades, exp $209.63)
  • 95% win-rate band: 73.9%–77.1%

Regime Edge

trend down exp $176.75
241 trades 83.0% win $42597.65
balanced range exp $169.09
1478 trades 93.0% win $249921.01
trend up exp $100.20
798 trades 53.5% win $79957.58
unknown exp $-48.17
288 trades 40.2% win $-13777.91

Best Windows

BTCUSD · 21:00 UTC exp $302.47
2 trades 100.0% win unknown
BTCUSD · 04:00 UTC exp $262.51
6 trades 100.0% win unknown
BTCUSD · 16:00 UTC exp $229.08
6 trades 100.0% win unknown

Timeframe Evidence

30m exp $209.63
296 trades 61.8% win PF 2.754
20m exp $203.94
235 trades 74.9% win PF 3.318
10m exp $173.78
342 trades 80.7% win PF 4.88
15m exp $172.55
254 trades 75.2% win PF 3.466

EURUSD.PRO

Sample established · max drawdown $3996.20 · max losing streak 9

EURUSD.PRO: positive realized edge exists

The realized sample is positive; the main question is where the edge is strongest and whether it survives narrower conditioning.

Trades
2129
Win Rate
92.2%
95% band 91.0%–93.3%
Expectancy
$50.50
Profit Factor
4.868
P&L Distribution
p10 $12.00 · p50 $41.00 · p90 $140.00
Best Timeframe
30m
Actionable Read
  • Best regime so far: trend_down (26 trades, exp $66.19)
  • Best window so far: EURUSD.PRO · 04:00 UTC (6 trades)
  • Best timeframe evidence: 30m (197 trades, exp $133.74)
  • 95% win-rate band: 91.0%–93.3%

Regime Edge

trend down exp $66.19
26 trades 96.2% win $1721.00
trend up exp $65.91
45 trades 62.2% win $2966.00
balanced range exp $56.40
1949 trades 95.8% win $109926.00
unknown exp $-65.20
109 trades 38.5% win $-7106.42

Best Windows

EURUSD.PRO · 04:00 UTC exp $223.38
6 trades 50.0% win unknown
EURUSD.PRO · 11:00 UTC exp $172.64
13 trades 76.9% win unknown
EURUSD.PRO · 22:00 UTC · history_import exp $133.02
49 trades 98.0% win history_import

Timeframe Evidence

30m exp $133.74
197 trades 86.8% win PF 7.539
20m exp $80.87
117 trades 92.3% win PF 7.692
15m exp $69.94
229 trades 93.9% win PF 11.26
10m exp $64.83
337 trades 98.5% win PF 43.339

USTEC100

Sample established · max drawdown $4350.93 · max losing streak 17

USTEC100: positive realized edge exists

The realized sample is positive; the main question is where the edge is strongest and whether it survives narrower conditioning.

Trades
1824
Win Rate
79.6%
95% band 77.7%–81.4%
Expectancy
$30.66
Profit Factor
2.748
P&L Distribution
p10 $-49.69 · p50 $31.83 · p90 $99.13
Best Timeframe
20m
Actionable Read
  • Best regime so far: balanced_range (1201 trades, exp $39.26)
  • Best window so far: USTEC100 · 11:00 UTC (4 trades)
  • Best timeframe evidence: 20m (165 trades, exp $55.58)
  • 95% win-rate band: 77.7%–81.4%

Regime Edge

balanced range exp $39.26
1201 trades 94.2% win $47151.42
trend up exp $34.64
383 trades 52.0% win $13265.65
trend down exp $13.63
102 trades 72.5% win $1390.69
unknown exp $-42.58
138 trades 34.8% win $-5875.55

Best Windows

USTEC100 · 11:00 UTC exp $534.72
4 trades 100.0% win unknown
USTEC100 · 12:00 UTC exp $203.48
6 trades 100.0% win unknown
USTEC100 · 21:00 UTC exp $198.85
6 trades 33.3% win unknown

Timeframe Evidence

20m exp $55.58
165 trades 75.2% win PF 5.388
30m exp $55.27
190 trades 71.1% win PF 5.48
15m exp $40.13
206 trades 75.2% win PF 3.998
10m exp $34.68
287 trades 80.8% win PF 4.945

US500

Sample established · max drawdown $2885.70 · max losing streak 9

US500: positive realized edge exists

The realized sample is positive; the main question is where the edge is strongest and whether it survives narrower conditioning.

Trades
1839
Win Rate
86.4%
95% band 84.7%–87.8%
Expectancy
$11.58
Profit Factor
2.773
P&L Distribution
p10 $-7.09 · p50 $6.54 · p90 $17.20
Best Timeframe
1m
Actionable Read
  • Best regime so far: unknown (115 trades, exp $85.34)
  • Best window so far: US500 · 21:00 UTC (9 trades)
  • Best timeframe evidence: 1m (115 trades, exp $85.34)
  • 95% win-rate band: 84.7%–87.8%

Regime Edge

unknown exp $85.34
115 trades 47.0% win $9814.47
balanced range exp $6.98
1453 trades 93.4% win $10147.10
trend down exp $6.80
98 trades 86.7% win $665.92
trend up exp $3.84
173 trades 53.2% win $664.43

Best Windows

US500 · 21:00 UTC exp $1435.34
9 trades 100.0% win unknown
US500 · 16:00 UTC exp $227.19
16 trades 62.5% win unknown
US500 · 15:00 UTC exp $150.76
3 trades 100.0% win unknown

Timeframe Evidence

1m exp $85.34
115 trades 47.0% win PF 1.997
30m exp $9.21
248 trades 83.5% win PF 6.041
20m exp $8.58
117 trades 79.5% win PF 3.756
15m exp $7.13
249 trades 80.7% win PF 3.947

ETHUSD

Sample established · max drawdown $8594.62 · max losing streak 16

ETHUSD: positive realized edge exists

The realized sample is positive; the main question is where the edge is strongest and whether it survives narrower conditioning.

Trades
2530
Win Rate
68.1%
95% band 66.2%–69.9%
Expectancy
$0.67
Profit Factor
1.061
P&L Distribution
p10 $-15.52 · p50 $5.12 · p90 $18.71
Best Timeframe
30m
Actionable Read
  • Best regime so far: trend_down (359 trades, exp $9.65)
  • Best window so far: ETHUSD · 02:00 UTC (5 trades)
  • Best timeframe evidence: 30m (323 trades, exp $9.66)
  • 95% win-rate band: 66.2%–69.9%

Regime Edge

trend down exp $9.65
359 trades 84.7% win $3465.42
balanced range exp $6.37
1139 trades 87.7% win $7250.45
trend up exp $2.27
779 trades 46.0% win $1769.20
unknown exp $-42.69
253 trades 24.1% win $-10800.19

Best Windows

ETHUSD · 02:00 UTC exp $398.82
5 trades 40.0% win unknown
ETHUSD · 03:00 UTC exp $388.09
10 trades 100.0% win unknown
ETHUSD · 19:00 UTC exp $29.44
3 trades 100.0% win unknown

Timeframe Evidence

30m exp $9.66
323 trades 58.2% win PF 2.619
15m exp $7.53
286 trades 74.1% win PF 4.382
20m exp $6.98
235 trades 67.2% win PF 2.823
10m exp $5.10
323 trades 74.0% win PF 3.133

Journal Edge by Strategy

Realized trades grouped by strategy, then symbol and mode

mt5_auto_EURUSD_PRO

1 symbol tracked · sample established

Last trade
2026-05-29 22:45:00
Trades
2129
1963W / 166L / 0 BE
Win Rate
92.2%
Expectancy
$50.50
Total P&L
$107506.58
Avg P&L
$50.50
Avg R
—

Best Historical Windows

Observational, not guaranteed

EURUSD.PRO · 04:00 UTC

exp $223.38
6 trades 50.0% win $1340.30 unknown

EURUSD.PRO · 11:00 UTC

exp $172.64
13 trades 76.9% win $2244.37 unknown

EURUSD.PRO · 22:00 UTC · history_import

exp $133.02
49 trades 98.0% win $6518.00 history_import

Parameter Recommendation

window_only

EURUSD.PRO · 04:00 UTC materially outperforms the full strategy baseline. Prefer that session or hour window first.

Best current window: EURUSD.PRO · 04:00 UTC

  • Keep current filters and size; only expand after more established sample quality.
Symbol Trades Win Rate Expectancy Total P&L Avg P&L Avg R Modes
EURUSD.PRO 2129 92.2% $50.50 $107506.58 $50.50 —
shadow 2020 trades 95.1% $114613.00 exp $56.74
live 109 trades 38.5% $-7106.42 exp $-65.20